![]() ![]() I don’t buy that after what we’ve seen the last two games of this series.Can you believe it, folks? Playoffs are here already! The first round kicks off tonight, and it's sure to be wild. That implies the Bruins have a 60% chance of skating into the Old Barn and putting the Isles on the brink of elimination in front of 12,000 Islanders fans who have been drinking in the parking lot for nine hours. For that reason, I see value on the Isles as a home underdog in this contest.Įven if Boston was a significantly better team than the Isles, I don’t believe they should be consensus -150 favorites at the Nassau Coliseum. I truly believe these teams are closer to equal than the public perception leads one to believe. They’ve played Boston very tough, and the underlying metrics are nearly a dead heat. Their goaltending was better than Boston’s as well.Īfter a horrid showing in Game 1, the Isles have rebounded nicely over the past two games. The Islanders did a better job in terms of both generating and preventing high danger chances. ![]() They finished the season with similar expected goal differentials (+0.28 for Boston, +0.17 for the Isles) at 5-on-5. However, despite this, Boston finished the season with just one more win than New York. Boston was on fire to end the regular season and dominated the Capitals in Round 1, while the Isles struggled down the stretch and weren’t overly impressive in their defeat of Pittsburgh. Boston has earned their reputation as a league powerhouse, while the Isles are still trying to get there despite winning playoff series in three consecutive seasons. There’s no denying the Boston Bruins have more of a pedigree than the New York Islanders. He’s posted a +1.2 goals saved above expectation in this series and quieted the critics who emerged after his average Game 2 performance. He’s posted a 92.2% save percentage in this series. In the other crease, Tuukka Rask was brilliant at the start of overtime to give the Bruins a chance to win. Trotz has expressed his confidence in Varlamov, so expect Sorokin to remain glued to the bench in Saturday’s contest. Rarely is a goaltender scapegoated after giving up just one goal in regulation and making 39 saves, but it sure did feel like the Isles were on their way to a win in that overtime prior to Varlamov’s whiff. However, Marchand’s overtime winner in Game 3 was atrocious on Varlamov’s part. Varlamov has given up early goals in both of the last two games, but has been solid for the most part after that. Ilya Sorokin started Game 1 for the Isles and lost, leading Barry Trotz to turn the crease over to Semyon Varlamov. The goaltending in this series has been weird. Barzal has appeared dangerous every time he’s had the puck on his stick, and the numbers back that up as he’s posted nearly a 58% expected goal rate in this series. Barzal scored his first goal of the playoffs to tie the game late in the third period on Thursday, but even prior to that, he looked like a different player the past few games. After a slow start to the postseason, it appears Mathew Barzal has arrived. However, there’s some very encouraging news for the Isles as well. They’ve particularly feasted on the Isles’ second defensive pairing with Scott Mayfield and Nick Leddy. In this series, they’ve posted a 78.1% expected goal rate. Hall was not on the ice for a single Isles shot on goal in Game 3. The Isles have had no answer for Boston’s second line featuring Taylor Hall and David Krejci. However, another Bruins’ line has emerged as a potential issue for the Isles. ![]() Barry Trotz has entrusted Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock and Jean-Gabriel Pageau to slow down the explosive line, and they’ve done well thus far in limiting their zone time. The trio has less than one expected goal (xG) combined in the last two games, while posting an xG rate of just 42.5%. However, the Isles have done a tremendous job since that point against Boston’s number one unit. The high danger chances were dead even, with both teams generating 16 each.Īfter posting a 91% expected goal rate in Game 1, it looked like the “Perfection Line” featuring Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak was going to dominate the series. In Games 2 and 3, the expected goal battle favored Boston, 4.6 to 4.35. The Bruins dominated the Isles in Game 1, but the two teams have played nearly dead-even games over the last two contests. Claim Offers Now What We’ve Learned So Farīoston has a 2-1 series lead, and it’s probably deserved. ![]()
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